DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) technology, which began emerging in the late 1970s, gained traction in the 1980s due to the increasing demand for high-speed data transmission driven by cable television and network communications.
Simply put, DSL technology transmits data over traditional telephone lines using higher frequency bands, thereby surpassing the traditional voice communication's limitation of a maximum data transmission speed of 56 Kb/s.
ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) is a type of DSL technology. Unlike standard DSL, which offers symmetric data upload and download speeds, ADSL optimizes the bandwidth for download, which is typically higher than the upload rate, efficiently utilizing network resources and thus enhancing the user capacity on a network.
Over the past few years, America Online (AOL) had primarily offered two types of internet access services: traditional dial-up and the more advanced ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network). Dial-up offered speeds up to 56 Kb/s, while ISDN, an 80s-era technology, could double this to 128 Kb/s.
The difference between DSL and the previous technologies is akin to the transition from analog to digital signals in mobile communications.
Four years ago, when the Westeros Company first invested in Quantum-Link, AOL's predecessor, Simon leveraged his major shareholder position to urge Steve Case to acquire patents for DSL technology and invest in its subsequent development.
ADSL, as the result, represents AOL's next-generation digital subscriber line standard.
In Simon's memory, for a long time, ADSL was almost synonymous with broadband, even though they are distinct concepts. This underscores ADSL's widespread adoption and success.
Compared to the original timeline, ADSL has emerged at least five years earlier in this reality.
Much like other technologies—such as the internet, semiconductors, and digital cameras—that developed over decades, ADSL's earlier emergence was possible with the right catalyst for technological advancement and a commercial opportunity promising profits, rather than any insurmountable technical barriers.
Analogous to humanity's moon landing in 1969, if space programs had yielded returns several times their investment, humanity might have colonized Mars by now.
In the original timeline, the internet boom at the turn of the century was largely chaotic and unstructured. Companies recognized the vast commercial potential but lacked clear direction to unearth the "treasure." This uncertainty was why many early tech giants failed to sustain their success in the Internet 1.0 era—they didn't know the right path forward.
In contrast, Simon possesses a mental map of this "treasure."
While other internet service providers historically experimented with various technologies before settling on ADSL as the standard for high-speed internet, Simon bypassed these unproductive trials and directly pursued the most effective solution as confirmed by his memory.
In the original timeline, AOL's downfall around 2000—from being a $200 billion titan to collapsing within a few years—stemmed from its abandonment of its core as an ISP, shifting towards becoming an internet media company, culminating in its merger with Time Warner, a traditional content giant.
As the internet transitioned from dial-up and ISDN to ADSL, AOL's focus on content led to neglecting its ISP business. This failure to keep pace with technological shifts allowed traditional telecom operators to reclaim their market dominance, while AOL, losing its core identity, couldn't satisfy the diverse content demands of its millions of users.
This time, Simon has firmly anchored AOL in its ISP roots. Over the past few years, AOL has heavily invested in its own fiber optic backbone and other infrastructure to avoid reliance on traditional telecom networks.
AOL has now established robust networks on both coasts and has even completed a transcontinental fiber optic link exclusively for its use. Additionally, AOL has been conducting limited trials of its developing ADSL technology.
With these preparations in place and a substantial user base in the US, it's time to roll out the technology upgrade.
Without the exclusive agreements Simon secured initially, even if AOL had laid down its network, the traditional telecom companies, with their century-long infrastructure investments, would still pose a significant threat to AOL's market dominance.
However, once the transition from dial-up to ADSL is complete, AOL will enjoy an unparalleled advantage in the ISP sector. ADSL, though still utilizing phone lines, operates on a fundamentally different data transmission mode from dial-up, requiring entirely different equipment and substantial financial investment for network upgrades.
Any enterprise that gets ahead in time and technology, and stays focused, can maintain its lead indefinitely.
In the coming year, AOL plans to invest $1.5 billion in this massive network upgrade to ADSL.
To many observers, this significant investment and bold bet on ADSL, especially with no guaranteed future visibility, might seem like a gamble.
In the absence of later ADSL recognition as synonymous with broadband, various other technologies could have been viable alternatives at this time.
Even within AOL, many senior executives and board members preferred further enhancing ISDN technology to improve overall network speeds, due to its lower cost and reduced risk compared to adopting an unproven technology like ADSL.
If ADSL fails to deliver the anticipated benefits, AOL stands to lose not just the $1.5 billion investment but potentially face a crisis that could jeopardize the company's entire future.
This risky decision was ultimately driven by Simon's strong influence, leveraging Westeros Company's controlling stake in AOL.
On January 20, Simon spent the day in New York attending high-level meetings at AOL, only flying to Washington in the afternoon.
On the same day, Bill Clinton officially took over the presidency from George Bush. The inauguration ceremony continued into the evening with a grand celebration at the Lincoln Memorial.
Instead of joining the festivities, Simon attended a quieter reception elsewhere in the city, meeting with several members of the Clinton cabinet.
Once again, he avoided direct contact with Clinton himself.
Nevertheless, Simon gathered critical information that night. Clinton's promised visit to Silicon Valley was scheduled for early March. During the same month, Congress would vote on the "Information Superhighway Initiative." With the Democratic Party controlling both houses post-election, the chances of the bill passing were high.
Thus, compared to the original timeline's September 1993, this reality's Information Superhighway Initiative would be introduced six months earlier.
Though just a six-month difference, Simon knew the initiative's national scope would significantly propel the internet industry forward.
Most directly, the initiative would include tax breaks and subsidies for new tech companies, making the financial landscape even more favorable for Westeros' tech enterprises, which were already flush with cash. Moreover, it would further stimulate capital investment in the tech sector, fueling the internet industry's explosive growth.
Following the presidential inauguration, AOL's ADSL upgrade plan was publicly disclosed.
Given internal disagreements within AOL regarding the plan, the media, with their keen sense for potential controversy, had already begun investigating.
Once the $1.5 billion investment for the ADSL upgrade was announced, it sparked a new wave of media debate.
Post-upgrade, AOL would break free from the speed limitations of dial-up and provide users with internet speeds exceeding 256 Kb/s.
At 256 Kb/s, users could download data at 32 Kb per second. Currently, most games on Egret's online store are around 1 MB. Where 56 Kb/s or 128 Kb/s networks would require several minutes to download a game, ADSL could accomplish this in under a minute.
Furthermore, with the ADSL upgrade, Egret's technologies for web animations and audio could be widely implemented, enriching internet content and enhancing user experience.
This enriched internet content would, in turn, attract more users, driving industry growth in a positive feedback loop.
However, for the next few years, this positive cycle would predominantly benefit AOL's operating areas.
Upon completing the ADSL upgrade, if traditional operators remained sluggish, AOL would likely expand beyond its current markets, with plans already drafted to venture into the Great Lakes region.
Nevertheless, this vision of a positive cycle wasn't shared widely. Instead, many critics lambasted AOL's aggressive expansion strategy.
After two years of industry boom, AOL had been operating at a loss. With its network just established on both coasts, the conventional business logic would suggest a period of consolidation and cost recovery before considering further upgrades.
Upgrading so soon after laying down its network, especially with an unproven technology, seemed reckless.
As a result, on January 21, the day the plan was revealed, AOL's stock fell by 3.1%.
Westeros Company's subsequent response was unexpected.
And it was straightforward.
They simply bought more shares.
By the close of trading on January 22, a Friday, Westeros Company filed an SEC document indicating it had increased its stake in AOL. Over two days, as AOL's stock dipped by 5.3%, Westeros Company raised its ownership from 65.4% to 66.1%, investing approximately $80 million.
On Saturday, at a press conference, Westeros Company's President, James Rebold, stated that the Westeros system was very optimistic about AOL's future prospects and was prepared to invest more if necessary.
With an immediate $80 million boost, the capital markets took note of Westeros' financial muscle. They reconsidered their stance on AOL.
AOL's rapid growth over recent years was undeniable. Given its operations were still confined to coastal states, the company had substantial room for further expansion. Abandoning AOL stocks because of skepticism around the ADSL plan seemed unwise.
The media had been wrong before.
In contrast, Simon Westeros had a track record of business miracles.
By the end of the weekend, the markets had realigned. On Monday, AOL's stock rebounded to its January 20th levels, even showing signs of breaking past the $20 billion market cap.
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