THE SAME DAY, EVENING
You'd be hard-pressed to say that an officer of the Service Corps in the General Staff is blessed with much spare time.
And when it comes to those Lieutenant General von Zettour has working on railroad matters, they're glued to the timetables where every second counts.
It's the busiest department in the General Staff. And rail management specialist Lieutenant Colonel Uger doesn't take his work lightly…
"It's been a while, Colonel Uger. I hope your wife and daughter are well?"
"Yes, quite well. I'm a little worried my daughter is forgetting my face, but…"
"Sorry to hold you up in the evening when you should be home for family service."
"It must be something you don't want outsiders to hear, right? Are you in a hurry?"
…Which is why Tanya feels that having the social capital to be able to ask someone inside the General Staff to meet is a bigger advantage than she could have hoped for.
-
Who you know, who you can talk to, who you're connected to… Those elements are often undervalued, but trust is like air.
When you have it, it's easier to breathe.
"…Oh, I just wanted to shoot the breeze about the state of things."
"I… see." He smiles weakly. Perhaps he thinks her excuse insensitive. Tanya finds herself wondering if she should have instead said, talk about old times, but what's done is done.
"I believe you've met, but I'll reintroduce you. This is one of my men, Major Weiss."
Weiss salutes in silence. After glancing at him, Uger turns to Tanya in confusion and asks, "You want to shoot the breeze? That's fine, but are you having him come along?"
"Well, I look so tiny, you know. If I'm out walking at night alone, I get caught by the MPs or public security police and scolded. Wouldn't you worry about your daughter if she was out alone at this hour, Colonel?"
"I'm not sure if you're being serious or using it as a convenient means to your end, but I'll go with it."
At least he's not objecting to sharing secrets.
Real coffee fills their cups to the brim. Uger takes a sip and smiles, crinkling his eyes.
"So?" The first thing he asks is what she's here for. "Colonel von Degurechaff, cut straight to the chase for me."
"The chase?"
"I haven't forgotten our time in war college. I was so surprised by the novel points you brought to our debates. It makes me nostalgic thinking about it." His eyes smile and she can't sense any tension from him. She begins to worry he's turned into an old man reminiscing over the past.
Exhausted eyes, the sharp increase in gray hairs, that tone of voice that makes it sound like he's in pain—it all makes his actual age difficult to guess.
Hard work and stress are the main causes, but lack of sleep probably doesn't help. "…It feels like so long ago."
"So much has happened."
"So true. There really have been so many things going on."
Whatever the reason, the officers of the General Staff are aging dramatically. If you didn't know Uger's real age, you would probably talk about him as the old lieutenant colonel like he was a character in a story.
It has to be the poor working conditions.
As far as Tanya knows, military law requires that staffers take proper vacations and keep their physical strength up, but… in times of war, the law falls silent is apparently a saying.
"Which is why I want to know what you want to chat for." "…Even I'm a bit hesitant to cut to the chase this time."
Both Weiss and Uger flinch, bracing themselves, and Tanya winces inwardly. They don't need to react so theatrically.
Well, setting aside overly stressed Uger, at least… "I just figured, since it's you and me."
"I'm honored, Colonel… So now what should I say?"
Tanya emits a sigh—"haah"—and begins to speak. "The Imperial Army is in no position to pursue victory. We at least need to admit that we're deadlocked."
When she inquires with her eyes what he thinks, she sees that he understands.
"There's no doubt about that." Uger nods with a bitter expression on his face. He's a logistics and railroad specialist.
The organization that is the Imperial Army is facing various problems. Chief among
them, and the one that he is in charge of, is that due to excessive expansion of the lines, the logistics network supporting them has been stretched to its limits. You could say he's the one in all the General Staff who understands this problem the best.
Because he is that sort of person, even Tanya, concerned with self-preservation, can say the following: "Allow me to reason from our premise." She explains the main premise. "The Reich cannot take any further expansion of the lines. We have no reason to expect that our enemies will surrender. We're deadlocked."
At the moment, they're definitely dealing with the situation—coping. The fact that the Imperial Army, which never envisioned a long war, has hung in here so long is due to miraculously hard work.
The current state is a quagmire—or a lull, you could say.
"And the General Staff is concerned about it. I'm not in a position to know General von Zettour's inner feelings, but I'm sure he's aware of the problem."
"I agree. So having considered the Imperial Army's situation, located the problem in the strategic realm, and defined that problem—"
"That's enough."
"Huh?" Tanya cocks her head when Uger stops her, and he speaks frankly.
"Colonel von Degurechaff, let's not spin our wheels here. I'm sure neither of us has time to spare."
"Then if you insist…" She straightens up and continues, "Colonel Uger, an immediate peace is our only option."
"Peace?… Colonel von Degurechaff, I'm surprised you aren't aware. The Foreign Office and other organizations are actively searching for a way to negotiate. Peace is—"
No. She stops him with a look and interrupts. "The current situation is a stalemate."
She uses a chess metaphor because it describes their circumstances in a straightforward way.
The Empire can't find its next move. And how could it? is how Tanya sees things. What
can this be called if not a deadlock?
"We don't have a move to make. You may find this repetitive, but allow me to say this with that in mind."
She takes a deep breath and… can't quite spit out what comes next. She's aware that even with an old friend from war college like Uger, in the Empire's paradigm, it's a view that she should think twice about expressing.
Still, she's not interested in being the type of trash who stays silent when things need to be said.
"I believe there is no path but to immediately propose a peace with restitutio in integrum."
But her determined words don't seem to make much of an impression. Weiss, gaping at her, doesn't seem to understand. But it's no wonder.
Tanya, like all imperial soldiers, is fighting for victory.
Ever since the Empire's founding, that has been its unending tale of glory.
Victory means magnificent expansion. Even if someone understood the need for peace, until it was pointed out to them, they wouldn't understand the essence of the matter.
"Thus, we shouldn't reject restoring the borders back to their prewar locations with no annexations, dropping all demands, and requiring no reparations, and if need be, signing an arms limitation treaty." Tanya finishes what she has to say. From her perspective, they need to give up.
Incurring further losses out of regret for the enormous sunken costs is putting the cart before the horse.
This is one of the mistakes people make constantly.
It's a classic pattern of collapse repeated time and again by great corporations, firms obsessed with successful experiences.
But that's just her opinion.
Hence, moderate, sensible Uger's pained expression. "Colonel von Degurechaff, that's not peace."
"Then what is it?"
"It's no different from surrender. It certainly can't be called peace." The color of his face as he snapped at her, though he's just barely controlling himself… well, he should probably be praised for the attempt given the intense emotions he's suppressing.
"…Do you know how much this war has cost? How many young corpses we've piled up?"
"With all due respect, that's why I think we should be against any further sacrifices." He's probably been shocked speechless.
After a few moments of silence, he addresses Weiss. "Major Weiss, how do you see it?" "Huh?"
"I want to know the opinion of an officer in the field. How do you see it?"
He's implying he wants a view that isn't Lieutenant Colonel Tanya von Degurechaff's. Her subordinate asks with his eyes if it's all right for him to speak, and Tanya nods. "Go ahead, Major. Say whatever's on your mind."
She anticipated this type of question from the start.
Serebryakov has been her adjutant for too long. Hence she brought Weiss. She's sure that even if his opinion can't be called objective, it'll be useful as a reference.
"To jump right to the point… if given a choice between sacrifices proportional to our gains or not making any more sacrifices, I'd hope for the latter. But I also think it would be very difficult to give up at this point."
"I see. So that's the feeling on the front lines." "It's how I feel personally, at least."
In the face of Weiss and Uger's interaction, Tanya stiffens. I have to admit, I thought I had his answer figured out.
"…Hold up, Major Weiss."
…So she has to interrupt. "You can't give up, either?"
"Actually, I wonder why you can, Colonel."
"Because it's our only choice. Being a frontline commander is about making decisions and focusing."
Weiss may be accustomed to war, but he also understands common sense. That's her honest view of him.
He can be practical if need be, she thought, and even, He couldn't not be. And yet… Why?! Why is he expressing open confusion?!
"I beg your pardon, ma'am, but that's just a theory… It's an opinion."
A soldier who knows the cutthroat world of fighting on the front line should be on board with peace. Tanya believed that unwaveringly. This is the first instant she felt it wobble.
"All right, Colonel, I hope you'll leave it at that. Let's get back to the main topic." "Okay." She turns back to Uger.
"…I understand your logic; I do." "Thank you, Colonel Uger."
"But Colonel von Degurechaff, it's like he said."
Tanya is forced to reluctantly agree. Nodding in silence is her tiny act of rebellion. Her attitude is less due to childishness than being dazed.
"We can't give up. Even this one you've been training for ages comes back from the front lines and agrees!"
"I think she's agreed…"
"Even though, intellectually, I hate it to death, I nodded, but I feel like I'm stuck resisting to the bitter end in a pillbox. I can't agree to this gladly."
Uger's face is extremely hard. In the same way, Tanya's disapproval is probably showing in her voice.
"You're fine with more losses?"
"You're fine with the losses so far meaning nothing?"
Ohhh. That's when Tanya understands. It's the Concorde Effect.5
The Concorde Effect, of all things!
Without a doubt, this war has become an investment that is no longer worth it for the Empire. It has spent massive amounts of money on the war, as well as dumping every last young person—its working population—all over the ground.
What has it gotten? Large swathes of territory crawling with partisans and guerrillas. To say it's not worth it is a gross understatement.
If you think about it sensibly and squeeze everywhere you can, you could probably aim to improve revenue, but at the most basic level, it's still an unprofitable enterprise. The best, if it were possible, would be to wrap up this venture immediately.
There's just one problem.
…After going through so much hardship, there's that feeling that you must get returns.
"So even you'll argue against me?"
"If it weren't you, I'd be screaming and kicking my chair over… Colonel von Degurechaff… immediate peace is just too absurd."
"The only way to resolve this I can see is the peace you just called absurd."
Uger starts arguing back "But that's nothing but surrender!" sharp and fierce, but Tanya can see where he's going and gets ahead of him.
"At least it's way better than an unconditional surrender once we're invaded." "Don't be ridiculous."
"But I'm pretty sure the General Staff hasn't figured out how to end the war in the near to midterm via victory. So logically, you can't rule out the enemy forcing peace upon us."
For a time, Uger falls quiet before her, and she glares silently back at him. What Tanya is describing is an entirely plausible vision of the future.
She's confident that a soldier—precisely because they're a soldier—should be able to grasp this possibility. And she and Uger were vying for class position in war college. He's far from foolish; there's no way he can't understand it.
Yet he's being so insensible.
And yet… , she repeats in her head and then finally realizes what the root of the problem is. "So you're saying that even a soldier who is against sacrifices is still stubbornly against peace."
She doesn't even have to look at Uger's expression as he nods tiredly. "That's how it is. In the rear, we've got the irritating-as-hell, delusional monster known as 'public opinion' causing trouble. How much do you know?"
"I keep getting transferred from battlefield to battlefield, so I don't hear much about public opinion in the homeland."
"Colonel von Degurechaff, take a look at this."
What made a slight noise as he laid it gently on the table was a precision pocket watch. From the looks of it, an old model. It isn't as small as a wristwatch. Still, it's an exquisite piece; she can gather that the craftsman put a lot of careful work into it.
"A pocket watch?" "This."
"The chain? What about it?"
"Originally, they were silver. But then the order to collect all silver went out." "I see… So your point is…?"
"In restaurants at home, people are seriously saying that this is the 'greatest sacrifice.' That the reason they're enduring such inconvenience is for victory."
If it weren't her friend Uger saying it, she probably would have dismissed the comments outright as preposterous.
"Even for something like that, they're demanding high returns… And the radio shows and newspapers are on board with it."
"Isn't there censorship?"
"You think this surge of desire to fight can be stopped? The censorship plan is just trial and error. Since there wasn't a plan in advance, they're only now finally trying it out."
"We've got amateurs in control of the media? No wonder our propaganda sucks."
Usually foreign news is more objective when you're the losing country, but the Imperial Army is winning, so it's pretty bad if our news is experiencing that phenomenon. It's to the point that embedded foreign reporters' stories are published in their home countries before the imperial reporters' stories are even through the censors.
Tanya had despised the Imperial Army control of the media as an incarnation of ineptitude, but hearing there isn't even a plan is just frightening.
"Y-you mean, there's no way to calm down this war frenzy?"
When she says it, the realization finally hits me.
I don't even need to recall the Hibiya incendiary incident. Even the winning side becomes intoxicated by success. Bismarck just had to take Alsace-Lorraine. Once Napoleon was too victorious, Talleyrand could advise him only so much.
…Apart from a major defeat, there's nothing worse than a major victory. That irritating-as-hell saying hits on an eternal truth.
It's just like the bubble.
Until the reigning fanaticism bursts, it will keep growing without end. If you tried to stop it, the reaction would probably be unimaginably fierce.
"…This is the worst. If we try to dampen their desire to fight, we could end up with bigger problems than the war."
"We don't know if that would happen."
"Colonel Uger, you'll have to excuse me, but I think rather than being optimistic, we need to be prepared as pessimists."
Even if it's annoying, it's a truth she has to convey.
The only ones who can avert their eyes from the truth are the fools who say they don't want to see a failure but then go racing to the bottom. Fools can only be scoffed at. It would be more fun to blow my brain stem out than be friends with them.
"The situation is unfavorable. The Empire is intoxicated by the delusion of victory, and meanwhile being swallowed whole by the mud on the front lines. The Empire's precision instrument of violence is decaying." So she declares, "Military matters are only a continuation of politics. They require a political solution… Could I have you suggest that to the higher-ups via General von Zettour for me?"
"All right. I'll talk to him."
"Great," says Tanya eagerly, but Uger continues in a subdued voice. "But I'll say this: Don't expect much."
"May I ask why not?"
"It'll be impossible to make a move right away. Or rather, I guess I should say I can't get them to move."
Even without naming names, she catches his drift. Even if Zettour acknowledges the suggestion, it doesn't mean she'll get the dramatic change of course that she wants.
"Colonel Uger, I'm going to ask you straight up. Why are so many things being put off until later? Is it sabotage? Are there rebels inside the organization?"
"C-Colonel von Degurechaff!"
"It's fine… Actually, I finally just realized…"
Weiss tries to tell Tanya she's said too much, but Uger stops him with a sad smile.
"I'll say this as a member of the General Staff: The General Staff never envisioned embarking on foreign campaigns. The Imperial Army itself was designed only with mobile defense near the borders in mind." He scoffed. "The Empire didn't even have a plan ready for invading enemy territory. As a result, the army has been playing it all by ear on the battlefield. You could say that, since we can't fix it, we've simply been coping haphazardly."
"You mean we've only avoided total collapse due to the strenuous efforts of individuals in the field?"
"That's a harsh way to put it but accurate. I mean, the army's overall direction was so vague to begin with… I see. Once you put it into words, it really hits you how serious the situation is. This is awful…" He gazes up at the ceiling, a far-off look in his eyes. His shoulders appear dusty. Nothing more could make you understand how grave the situation facing the General Staff is.
As far as Tanya can tell, the Imperial Army and its organizational culture are all about playing it by ear. Or to come at the issue from another direction, they've gotten into the bad habit of handling things as they happen.
Even if it's a system that allows for incredible tactical flexibility, forgetting about strategy entirely is putting the cart before the horse. There's no way to win by being so reactionary.
If even the strategy specialists Lieutenant General von Zettour and Lieutenant General von Rudersdorf are limiting their roles to purely military matters, then the Empire essentially has no national strategy.
If the General Staff can't make proper use of its military victories, it'll end up like Hannibal.
They'll continue winning on the battlefield—with the caveat, until that one final battle that can't be undone.
Tanya's about to groan when Uger slings a follow-up attack. "This is a state secret, but I'm sure it's fine to tell you. It's about distribution in the east using the rail network. Since the General Staff doesn't have much experience making attack plans, it took a page from a certain book. Do you know whose?"
"Come to think of it, if we were doing the fundamental research on that, it's weird that I didn't hear about it. It's not from some cadet's homework or something, is it?"
"Close but no cigar. Well, actually you're right, in a way." "Huh?"
The answer he gives her as she gapes at him is one she didn't expect.
"The fundamentals are from a joint research paper by the Republican Army General Staff and the War History Compilation Division called An Inquiry into the Logistics of Invading the Empire."
This fact he explains self-deprecatingly renders Tanya speechless.
It's not even from their own country. If the source weren't Uger, she wouldn't have believed it.
"I-is that true?"
The Imperial Army is so good at playing things by ear because it has done its homework. After all, in staff education at war college, everyone gets how to cope when the bottom falls out of your assumptions drilled into their brains.
Surely someone, somewhere is researching foreign campaigns.
…At some point, I'd acquired a bias that overestimated them.
"We couldn't use railroad operation theory optimized for interior lines strategy abroad." The words Uger spoke with a dry smile were shocking.
Even under suppressive fire by the Republican heavy artillery on the Rhine front, I wasn't this horrified.
"It feels like cheating. Of course, when you don't have the know-how logically, your only option is to use what you can."
"Seizing enemy equipment is one thing, but copying their plans is…" "It had to be done. That's all."
They were forced to appropriate enemy research… Nothing proves the Imperial Army's assumption that they wouldn't need to conduct foreign campaigns more than that. It's utterly ridiculous, but basically they were an army that forgot about the concept of invading the enemy.
Horrifically, Tanya can now explain so many of her earlier feelings that something was off.
The handling of wintering in the Federation as if it had never been considered, the very belated formation of the Council for Self-Government, the reason it took so long for the military police to interpret and interview the prisoners—everything.
"…Well, I get it, then. So that's why everything is getting done at the last minute." She never guessed that would be the reason.
When you think about it, this is like the stupidity of cramming for one night to take a test. It's a wonder they've done it so many times and not failed yet.
Given the results of their divide-and-conquer efforts in the east, no one would be surprised to hear it was the result of long years of preparation. Who would think a rush job could be so effective?
"So that means… General von Zettour's divide-and-conquer plan in the east is ultimately working due to extraordinary individual efforts?"
She asks because she can't believe it's possible. She expects Uger to laugh it off. "That's right."
"Huh?"
His immediate answer sends a chill up her spine.
"So… so that means there's no clear plan? He's just doing it himself?"
"I understand your concerns… At present, Operations and Supreme Command both approve, but it's not based on solid strategic research."
It's a plan stemming from a single man's discretion. It's an individual's policy, not the organization's?
"Depending on how the situation changes, it's liable to be overturned fairly easily. The policy isn't very popular in Central."
She doesn't even wait for him to finish.
Tanya opens her mouth right away to respond. "Speaking from frontline experience, I can say that we absolutely have no other choice."
"It may be presumptuous of me to say so, but I think Colonel von Degurechaff is right." Weiss agrees with her immediately. There is no other solution possible for the east.
Though it may not be a popular policy, it's unlikely to change when it keeps the rear areas stable.
"Please convince the General Staff—by any means necessary."
"We're both just lieutenant colonels. That's a pretty tall order. If we at least had Colonel von Lergen… If he were here, it would be easier to talk to Operations."
"I heard he was sent to Ildoa."
"It must just be a coincidence this time, but… I suppose he'll be busy for a while. Although if I get the chance, I'd like to ask him."
"Thank you," says Tanya with a salute and nods at Weiss that he should leave it to Uger.
"…Also, I'd like to know what it's like in the field." As Tanya and Weiss straighten up, he bows his head to ask the favor. "Candid sentiments that can't be included with the official reports are extremely valuable. I can't lose sight of how things feel on the front lines. So please help me out."
His tone is sincere.
This is how a pro should be, not a naked emperor kicking back and relying on his subordinates to handpick intelligence for him.
His respect for the voices and experience coming from those who work in the field is a vivid expression of the health of the organization.
"Leave it to me. It'll be a thank-you for the real coffee. I'll provide you with the freshest lessons coming hot off the front lines."
"Please don't." Uger's supplication, I suppose you could call it, seems to Tanya like a murmur from the bottom of his heart. "What we get in the rear is so awful. The freshest stuff from the front line might be so disorienting, I get food poisoning."
"Better to have indigestion than go hungry."
"So I guess getting any deliveries is better than getting nothing? I can't deny that."
Uger's groaned conclusion is a sad truth. Just because someone is in a position to need to know what is happening on the front lines doesn't mean they have to weep with joy to hear the bad news. But neither can they close their eyes to reality.
"Whatever happens, let's do what we need to do."
"That's a crystal clear principle. All right, see you again."
In the end, Tanya has to conclude… no matter how much you sugarcoat it, the reality you don't want to see is still there.
In the case of the Empire, it's right before its eyes.
If fate is inescapable, then don't we have to embrace it?