It's about people like this that they later make up conspiracy theories. Zadnikov in Greenland.
20.aug.2119.
Egedesmund. Greenland.
The hall gradually filled up with people. In total, as far as Zadnikov knew, the group numbered just over fifty people - experts in a variety of fields that had little in common with each other. Although who they really were, he, Zadnikov, did not know for sure - he himself was listed here, funny to say, as a "secret consultant to a member of the parliament of the Russian Federation" - such an unusual position in Russia really did exist.
But where was he, Zadnikov, and where was a paper rat with some pawn from one of the parties. However, now, purely outwardly, Zadnikov was quite suitable - he coped with this perfectly. The town, in one of the buildings of which the meeting took place, was quite peculiar - Zadnikov found some similarities with the imaginary shelters of the Nazis in Antarctica, as he imagined them - he found this legend interesting. It would not be a big mistake to call all this not a town, but an object.
This object was not in Antarctica, but in Greenland. The name was quite in the spirit of the analogies that came to Zadnikov's mind - Egedesmund.
The city was really built from scratch for purposes close to military - a ground communications infrastructure facility, a transshipment base, including fuel modules for super aviation, other logistics. Unlike the purely civilian settlement of Aasiaata located nearby with its multi-colored houses, all the buildings here were either just gray or light gray - another similarity with the Antarctic myth from the era of black-and-white film videos. If only some flying trough, designed in the shape of a disk, had landed - then the picture would have been as authentic as possible. True, unlike the Antarctic landscapes, there was no snow now - only rocks and a cold sea.
A certain Nedmolton was supposed to act as the central figure of the meeting - a representative of a private American foundation affiliated with the American intelligence services. And, of course, with business, big business, that is, one of the two constellations, AEX or GBA.
The rest of those present, the same members of the group as Zadnikov himself, were from a variety of Bloc states: there was a British engineer in thermonuclear energy - that's how vaguely his area of activity was presented, there was a French engineer in manned space flights, some other agricultural economist, also from France, a Japanese contractor for transport aviation. The conclusion suggested itself - the subject of consideration was of a very large-scale, all-encompassing, but at the same time probably vague nature. This happens when the topic under consideration is economics, and not something purely military-strategic.
The group was nothing more than the so-called "think tank" - a collective "kettle" designed to give birth to some sensible thoughts.
Finally, the hall filled up - the group was in full force. Nedmolton took a place at the podium and began with the usual greetings.
- Our goal, gentlemen, - he announced, finally getting down to business, - will be the consideration and modeling of several scenarios for the further development of the global situation and the course of the War. To begin with, we will determine the classification of scenarios, which we will adhere to in the course of our work. In addition, we will bring the range of concepts that are currently widespread to a more orderly structure. We will reject some.
The speaker spoke in a rather scientific manner. - So, we will consider the further development and further course of the war as three options - three key events, each of which will have two outcomes. Moreover, each outcome can be the result of two events, in other words, one or the other event can lead to the same outcome.
A diagram appeared on the screen, on which in the top row there were three empty rectangles, from which arrows went down to the bottom row of four figures. The top ones were painted in different colors - blue, green and red. The bottom ones were vaguely yellow. Without any text explanations, the diagram looked rather primitive.
- The first scenario, let's call it blue, - Nedmolton looked back at his diagram, - this scenario implies the successful implementation of a de-escalation plan jointly developed by both sides. The de-escalation status will also include the denuclearization of any actions at the front. An exception will be made for the orbital struggle.
- Well, we can go our separate ways, - Zadnikov thought mockingly. - In about five years, of course, we can get together again to discuss what and how...
- Even without the assumptions about a formal end to the War with the conclusion of a peace package, we consider this scenario to be very optimistic, - as if echoing Zadnikov's thoughts, Nedmolton continued.
The diagram, or rather the blue rectangle, was meanwhile filling with text - the points about the settlement plan and denuclearization first flashed in close-up and then disappeared into the rectangle. Such a rather advanced, although technically simple replacement for the ancient practice of scribbling with a marker on a board.
- Most likely, a significant contribution to the settlement will be made by informal agreements ensuring a step-by-step process of mutual concessions. To be more specific, then we will be talking about freezing the Central African Front, CAF, with the creation of a demilitarized zone along the current, at the time of the declaration of the agreement, front line. A similar scenario will be applicable to the Eurasian EAF. As for the South American Blockade, the issue of this bridgehead cannot be described by any clear scenario at the moment.
- In other words, we don't know what to do with it, - thought Zadnikov.
- The process of folding the bridgehead and withdrawing the Asian Bloc group will widely include such a component as the exchange of prisoners. The next component of the complex of agreements will be determining the future status of the Russian Federal Republic. We are not ready to agree to the RFR losing its bloc status, but it is possible to consider the option of partial demilitarization of the RFR and the withdrawal of part of the bloc's forces.
- And of course, we will not ask Russia, - Zadnikov mentally reproached the speaker with irritation. - Are you going to abandon the country to the mercy of historical elements once again? Allow it to slide into darkness, and then many years later other smart guys will cackle: "how did this happen?"
Zadnikov took a pencil and drew a line on his tablet opposite the designated point - everything that was on the board was also displayed in individual gadgets that were laid out in places in the hall - the organizers approached the matter sensibly.
- At the same time, the deterrent forces on the land border of Russia and the Asian Bloc will certainly not be completely withdrawn, - Nedmolton continued. - In addition, they will be reinforced in the form of contingents of such non-aligned states as India and Iran. The India-Iran-Turkey-Russia ITIR community is supposed to be finally formalized, and as a friendly-neutral military-political bloc in relation to the Community of Western Nations.
This, in particular, will close the path to a scenario in which Iran will sooner or later be drawn into the orbit of the Asian World. Another, less problematic member of the ITIR community, Turkey, will have dual affiliation, like Russia, which will become the main driver of promoting our interests in this community. As for the results, that is, the outcomes of the blue scenario, it will be a new world order within our Western Community. The Asian world will be outside this framework, the interaction of both global communities under such a world order is a subject of separate consideration.
- The whole world is our Western Bloc? OK, - Zadnikov chuckled to himself. - Only if it weren't for the last century and all its stupidities, it would really be so.
- In the matter of administration and economy of the Community of Western Nations, - Nedmolton continued, - the concept of the Global Vanguard and the principles of the Multi-State will be relevant. The concept of the Multi-State is described quite clearly, so I will not dwell on it, but as for the Global Vanguard, this idea has many interpretations, so I will outline how we will present it.
Zadnikov knew very well what the Multi-State was, aka the Multi-State, and considered all this to be complete nonsense.
The idea was that several state systems could exist within the same territorial boundaries. Let's take, for example, some European country, say France with its dynamic history.
At different periods, over the past couple of centuries, socialist and conservative sentiments alternately prevailed there.
If MultiState had been implemented there, socialist France and the Fifth Republic, and at the same time, say, the Third, would have existed within the same territorial boundaries, like parallel worlds, and there would even have been room for a fairy-tale France with a king at its head. Each such virtual state would have its own citizens - these citizens of different states would live in at least one house, at least one family. There was some similarity with the principle of functioning of online games - this is when one person has an account in one game and spends money there, another in another, and he spends, accordingly, in "his little world".
The idea of MultiState also concerned money - of course, different currencies were not envisaged, but taxation, insurance, benefits and pensions would be different in each such virtual state. There were also "non-virtualized" institutions, such as the police, emergency medicine and rescue services.
The army was also mostly "non-virtualized", but some courts, executive institutions and legislative bodies were virtualized. Migration from one state to another would be possible, but would have time limits - it would be impossible to run from one to another every other day. Dual citizenship, most likely, would not exist either.
Such parallel states could resolve the issue of political contradictions in society, although in return a certain competition would arise between these virtual countries. For the most part, purely image-political.
A distinctive feature was also that this could only be arranged in a fairly developed society free from pronounced internal contradictions. In pre-war Sweden, for example. In Russia, even pre-war Russia, such an undertaking would have been too dubious.
Meanwhile, Nedmolton was talking about the Global Vanguard, as this idea should be understood here:
- ... It was formulated long before the war, at the end of the last century. In accordance with it, a group of nations and states is identified that possess the resources and productive forces for further progressive development up to the exploration of near-Earth space, the Moon and Mars.
The swing was what it should be, but as a rule, this is how this idea was described.
- The rest of humanity, - the speech continued, - is defined as UNM or subnational majority. Such a seemingly dismissive term was chosen based on the fact that disunited peoples who are not ready for integration into the general progressive process will not be able to enter a community that can be defined as a global single nation. A nation in the political sense, of course. Yes, in the future we will talk about a single nation exclusively in the cultural and political sense, not to be confused with the definition based on the ethnic factor. A significant part of the economies of the UNM states will be industrial in nature. In order to conserve the planet's ecological resources, the UNM production facilities will have access to clean energy and will depend on this access, thus a mechanism for controlling the undesirable rapid growth of these industries will be implemented. At the same time, the UNM, if not forever, then for the foreseeable future, will remain outside the avant-garde technological development. - And has it ever been that there were no such plans for this part of humanity? Well, yes, it used to be believed that they did not need their own industry, - thought Zadnikov.
- As for the Global Vanguard, - the speaker continued, - this community of nations will own all the technologies and the full list of technological chains from the extraction of raw materials, which was previously reserved for individual raw materials economies, to the most advanced production. In vulgar terms, this community will represent what humanity should look like if it landed as its vanguard on a habitable planet, humanity starting its new path.
- Amazing thing! - thought Zadnikov. - For two hundred years, well, maybe a little less, people fantasized about sending a team to some other planet. They invented ships the size of a city. On paper, of course. They thought through how and what these settlers would do. And here we are, the twenty-second century. Once upon a time, when people had just learned to launch satellites, today's dates on a cheap wall calendar would probably have been associated by those people from the past with a fabulous future and progress. But fuck you. Of course there is progress... Not quite as it seemed, though. So modern scientists have practiced their plans for the development of planets and have come to the conclusion that we are not flying anywhere, but will arrange a planetary landing here. And the rest of the riffraff that is not involved - disperse quickly so that you are not seen, and scurry about there. Here is an extension cord. You can turn on something. Just a little. Funny.
In general, the concept of the Global Vanguard in the form in which Nedmolton described it looked more or less decent. In society, and in particular in the press of various levels, there were different interpretations, including outright Nazism. However, Nazi versions were often deliberately generated by opponents of the concept, who wanted to discredit it in this way - the technique was not new.
- The rest will lead their previous way of life without any harassment, - a voice was heard. - The military-political organization of the Bloc, and in its updated form, will certainly include the UNM states from those controlled at the time of de-escalation. In addition, even if we assume that some list of states will not join the Bloc on full grounds, the prerequisites for future local wars will be minimized - for this it is possible to provide mechanisms for partial participation of one or another state in the Bloc, or more straightforward mechanisms, such as peacekeeping initiatives from the Vanguard. Now the Vanguard of the Bloc. - In short, - Zadnikov summed up mentally, - There is a huge Western Bloc and an Asian one, which is not going anywhere. What will happen in the Asian one does not interest us yet. In ours, the Western one, there are seemingly decent countries and there is riffraff. The riffraff joins on partial grounds, that is, partial rights. And among the decent ones, there are the most decent ones - this is the Vanguard, which will develop the planet in a new way. So, daddy? How will he manage this?
Zadnikov, who would never wash his hands for the rest of his life, a special field agent, which was close to the concept of "war criminal" - he could rightfully declare himself with many other frightening and sanctioned words, now began to think that he was just an ordinary, unremarkable soldier who had been brought to a meeting of real predators of capital... Well, like the caricature bourgeoisie from vintage Soviet posters.
However, these were introductory and purely aesthetic impressions, and Zadnikov himself knew perfectly well who he worked for. And they do not invite just anyone. Besides, in the already distant past years of the collapse of the old Soviet order, even those caricatured pale-faced bourgeoisie were not always perceived as something bad. Especially in contrast to the devalued, red-faced workers from the posters. And here they are, these people from big capital. The real ones.
- I have already named one such peacekeeping initiative, or rather mechanism, - the Speaker continued, - our possession of thermonuclear energy and its supplies is already a sufficient lever for solving the problems of uncontrolled development, including quantitative demographic development, in a future world completely without oil. Well, or almost without oil.
In addition to everything else, Vanguard will assume certain humanitarian functions, for example, providing assistance in the event of natural disasters and, what is important, the associated threats of famine.
- Probably within our Bloc, - thought Zadnikov. In general, it was really hard to imagine how even after the War someone from the West would seriously start to punk, or even just be friends with the "@enemy"?
The host continued:
- The concept, as I already said, was developed at the end of the last century and the last decades have made their own adjustments to it. So, for example, in previous years, it was allowed to include a number of Asian nations in the Vanguard, in addition to Japan, which certainly shared our values. A global confrontation was not envisaged, and resistance from Asian nations was also not envisaged, which would undoubtedly take place even in the event of complete de-escalation. There were different points of view regarding the status of Russia with its small population and vast territories.
- Now that's interesting, daddy, - thought Zadnikov. Of course, any feelings of national involvement, patriotism and all that had long been alien to him, but he was not an absolute cynic either - firstly, he looked at such people, at cynics, especially those who flaunted it, as inferior, secondly, his own acquaintance with the world of weapons and all these "games of grown-up uncles" was somewhat traumatic, although it did not hinder his career. This happened at the moment when a dark wing flashed past the window of the apartment in which 11-year-old Tolik Zadnikov was sitting at the table and doing his homework. It did not pull on the wing of death - firstly, it was not a fantasy animated wing, but just a piece of torn metal and plastic. And then, on Tolyan, who had lain under the rubble for two days, there was, by and large, not a scratch left. The science of the GTO, "Civil and Territorial Defense" teacher who reeked of fumes turned out to be more important than all the others - when everything around him was already shaking, Zadnikov quickly realized what he had to do and dove under the desk.
Luckily, he was the only one at home at that time. Luckily for him and his family - there were other apartments in the Soviet seven-story building.
So Zadnikov took part in the events of 2085, when the Second Soviet Union began to crack at the seams and the year 2085, which some people remember, began in the west of the country. Lithuania.
Then a jet drone, falling apart in the air, crashed into the seven-story building. Not one of those, weighing a couple dozen kilograms, but one the size of a light fighter. Some asshole from the "people's front" - that's what they all called themselves - was lucky enough to shoot down an army drone, which some even bigger asshole officer decided to fly over city blocks, although such machines, being effective in open areas, in urban combat conditions at all times led to exactly such results. Most likely, the degenerate officer decided to exert psychological influence and beautifully cut through the streets.
Meanwhile, Nedmolton shared his plans for Russia:
- Russia should be included in the Vanguard, ensuring: first - territorial dominance and containment of Asian nations on the continent, second - a certain range of minerals. This, I note, was a real fetish of the late Soviet Union, an obsessive idea that the whole world was eyeing this natural storehouse. Third - the small population of the country opens up wide opportunities for its, the population's, socio-cultural reformatting. A certain necessity for this is obvious - many vices of the Soviet system have not been eradicated to this day. The very possibility of events around the Super-Federate is proof of this.
Zadnikov, the "Joker of the Super-Federate", as he was sometimes called, had time to grin, but he kept an imperturbable expression on his face.
- On the other hand, some part of the population of European countries can find their new home in the vast eastern territories and, together with the Russian nation in its current form, form a new nation. Such a development of events is extremely favorable in light of the need to contain Asian forces on the continent, in its northern part. Well, as it becomes more and more obvious with each passing year, there is a certain demand to localize the numerous European demobilized people, threatening to tear apart their native countries and society, to localize them somewhere outside.
What wollen we drinken! - Zadnikov recalled a popular song, popular not so much among the Nazis themselves, but as a musical accompaniment for a semi-comic illustration of something Nazi. Then, too, there was an idea to drag European peasants to Russia so that they could settle in the new territories.
Now, of course, there was no talk of any conquests, but even then, in the nineteenth century or when this movement had just started there, the smart guys hanging out in their Viennese opera did not expect any blitzkriegs, or Sonderkommandos, or their defeat.
And now, in the twenty-second century, AEX and GBA are planning to rake in the European soldiers who have won their battles, who now do nothing but "cause mayhem", rake them all in with their wayward families, shove them into transports, no matter which, and send them to the east. Like Stalin sent the Russians to Siberia. Or no, even earlier, when Stolypin's wagons were invented. Should we laugh or clutch our heads? How would these soldiers behave in the new territories? Well, they might get along with the locals - Peter the Great did something like that once, but they themselves, these new migrants, would want to exchange warm Europe for snowy... Let it also be Europe?
- This third point of the question about Russia is debatable, - Nedmolton clarified. - There is a slightly different vision, in which the country will not undergo significant changes, and its role will be minimized, while another region of our territories, South America, will be brought to unconditional advanced positions, implying even a partial relocation of the United States.
- First, push the bridgehead into the ocean, - thought Zadnikov.
- And yes, as for the question of socio-cultural reformatting, almost all nations need it. When the concept of Avant-garde was created, such reformatting seemed difficult to implement. Let me remind you, it was the end of the last century. Yes, the onset of the New Time was already approaching, but still. At present, the societies of Western nations are much closer to what should have been the result of that reformatting. I emphasize, closer not to the necessary starting conditions, but to the result itself. Oddly enough, the realities of recent years have played a positive role in this. The question of reformatting Russia is separate - it is a question of forming a nation that, in fact, truly controls and exploits huge spaces, these natural barriers to the spread of Asian influence. Zadnikov heard about the relocation of the USA - also a kind of vanguard, only on the scale of America - all financial institutions and high-tech simply moved to a selected suitable place in South America. Then the political and administrative components would follow them. There were already plenty of high-tech enterprises there. There were already some places there where defenses were set up just like in the SSSF, again because of the missile launch site, the one there was called "Lacaille." The locals would have to move over - but is that a problem? Besides, they would get some advantages, well, at least some of them, the top brass. And they would convey the feasibility of the idea to the rest. - That's how Zadnikov imagined it all. He didn't particularly reject the idea. In a military-strategic sense, these plans had one obstacle - a bridgehead on the east coast. Although blockaded by land, it was still supplied by ocean - "@enemy" managed to "throw over" the highway from Africa. Breaking the line of communication, this ant trail of ships, air defense aircraft and submarine guards was no easier than moving some front, the Big Front. - ...This is how the modern version of the Global Vanguard concept looks in general, Nedmolton summed up, - The concept has both frankly weak and controversial points. The former includes the question of the advisability of creating another military-political organization on the basis of ITIR. On the one hand, it will be possible to somehow draw Iran with its long-standing irreconcilable position and India, which adheres to the position of non-alignment, into the orbit of Western nations. Plus, it will be possible to close the path to rapprochement with Asian Nations for countries included in ITIR. On the other hand, in this way, Western nations themselves are creating a military-political force that is not entirely under their control.
The controversial points are the statuses of Russia and Turkey. The latter, although currently a full member of the Bloc, requires more careful consideration in the matter of forming the Vanguard. At least on the basis of the fact that in the last century, being a full member of the then North Atlantic alliance, it often adhered to dual positions. Now let's move on to the green option.
The green rectangle blinked a couple of times, eventually becoming a little greener.
- If in the blue option scenario the key event that is destined to redirect the trajectory of the scenario is the successful development, conclusion and observance of agreements, in other words, de-escalation and denuclearization, then in the green scenario such a turning point is some kind of crisis event. Such events may include another demarche, or even a large-scale political crisis in one of the leading states that does not imply a direct demarche, which, however, can also be equated to an indirect demarche. It could also be, for example, a classic military mutiny, which also cannot be ruled out. In all the cases cited, one of the main tasks is to extract a positive result from the above-mentioned negative events. Of course, any patriot of his nation and participant in the Common Cause sincerely wishes for something similar to break out in the enemy camp, but a realistic approach does not allow us to rule this out with comparable probability in our Western Community.
Having uttered a meaningless ritual-declarative tirade, Nedmolton continued:
- The main strategy for further actions consists of the same key points that appear in the blue scenario - this is the development, implementation and observance of agreements and agreements that ensure de-escalation and denuclearization of military actions. If during the past years of the War this could not be achieved due to disagreements on individual positions, then in the new conditions that will form after the crisis event, our side will be able to... It is assumed that our side will be able to defend its positions of agreements due to the fact that we will present the inevitable temporary weakening of our rear as an already made concession to the opposite side, which, figuratively speaking, will be a discount that they will receive by buying our conditions. At the same time, the stability of the balance of the military process, although it will decrease, will be far above the critically low level. This temporary crisis is considered as a completely acceptable price for the opportunity to finally come to the final result in the form of complete de-escalation - this is the most optimistic version, or conversion of the military process - this is in a vision closer to current realities. - In other words, we allegedly let our internal rear affairs go to waste, and the enemy, overjoyed by such an affair, signs agreements after which both sides give up the bombs, - Zadnikov mentally formulated what was said for himself. - And then with a slight movement we restore what had allegedly begun to burst at the seams. Cunning, but is this even possible?
- The result of the green scenario can be both the above-described Global Vanguard, and a device in accordance with a different concept. Unlike the idea of the Global Vanguard, this other one has not had and does not have such a wide coverage.
- As is well known, - the speaker continued, - at the final stage of the first great war of the twentieth century, the rear, the rear in the modern sense, implying the economy and moral state of society, well, the rear of both opposing sides were in a dire situation. This served as a catalyst not only for the formation of the Bolshevik state, but also, in modern language, for the peculiar demarches of individual European nations that adopted the same destructive ideas as the Russian Bolsheviks. And in Western Europe there were briefly lingering red republics. However, how destructive were they, these ideas? Here we must admit that decades later we often reason in the paradigm of the cold confrontation with the Soviet Union and that Confederation, which has gone down in history. In general, to consider Soviet history throughout its entire length as something monolithic would be a very rash approach. That side that once opposed us has come a long way. Not so much in the coordinates of time, but in the political coordinates. Moreover, this path is so long that a representative of the state administration of the inter-Soviet period would be considered a criminal if he found himself in the first decade of Soviet history. He would not have avoided socio-political repression if he had also found himself in the decades of the Second Union. An official of the Second Union would have had a lot of trouble both in the inter-Soviet period and in the years of the First Union. There would have been a lot of questions for the functionaries of the post-revolutionary decades if they had found themselves before the court of their descendants in person. So, we are interested in the political coordinates of the first decades, even the first years of Soviet history. Before continuing the conversation on the topic of Bolshevism, let's return to our days.
The turn has come to the red rectangle, which from pale turned into an unkind bloody color.
- So, the red option. The established balance of the mechanism of the War Process suffers an irreversible collapse. In the most simplified case, this is an escalation collapse, as we see it. Both sides suffer critical damage. We have no choice but to switch to the Doomsday Situation. If we move away from a straightforward template vision, from a simplified consideration, then an escalation collapse in a softer version than the classical presentation will be caused not by some reckless actions of the command, first of all, of course, of the enemy, not by the emergence of new types of weapons and not by a critical depletion of the purely defensive component of the potential of one of the parties. The first link in this chain may be a series of further demarches, not necessarily this large coordinated demarche mythologized in the media - the scale may be more modest. The weakening of the bloc's potential will force at least to increase the burden on the economies of the states not covered by the demarche, and at most to intensify the nature of military actions by switching to the use of weapons with increased damage and thus increasing the level of escalation. This will inevitably complicate the situation both in the states not covered by the demarche and in the rear as a whole. The balance of the War Process mechanism is becoming unstable, which, in the context of a series of demarches and exhaustion of the rear, opens the way to direct military defeat.
- In another version, the first link may not even be a series of demarches, but banal popular unrest and discontent - we cannot exclude this either. In essence, this is the same demarche, only from the very bottom.
- Something I don't quite understand, - thought Zadnikov, - are you describing some kind of controlled chaos or a truly uncontrollable one? It seems like so many years have passed - all of us, people as a whole, humanity, are not monkeys with grenades. What is this for? Dad led us to the topic of a large-scale all-encompassing rebellion in the rear, after which industry stops working and all that remains is to fire what is left, old, solid megaton missiles? But this is also nonsense. You don't know how to cope with the people's movement? Are you short of funds? I readily believe you, uncle! There are a lot of ways to save these tens of megatons and even lives by spending a kiloton or two wisely. This formulation, spoken out loud long before this gathering, was not particularly liked by Zadnikov himself, but there was logic in it.
- Today, the prevailing point of view is that stabilization of the rear, curtailment of demarches and blocking the possibility of direct military defeat can be solved by controlled escalation, an escalation surge, exceeding in its level everything that has taken place in recent years. It can only be compared with the first months, or rather, the transition from Pre-War to War. Such escalation will play a decisive role in the de-actualization of protests or demarches - the mobilization scenario will come into force. As studies show, moral resources for such a scenario are still available. The priority goal is to block the possibility of direct military defeat, which has already been said. In this case, the need to switch to the Doomsday Situation will be inevitable.
- Ah?! So that's what! - Zadnikov thought with some relief, at the same time feeling a mental desire to bite his tongue a little. The relief was not due, of course, to the described nightmares, but to the fact that the conversation, as it turned out, was still serious in nature, and did not slide, as it had previously seemed to Zadnikov, into tabloid chatter. It is true that there was some overkill with the Doomsday Proposition, but, of course, this option should not have been excluded from theoretical consideration.
- The green and red scenarios are, of course, not optimistic. - Nedmolton continued. - However, they become so, especially the green one, if everything happens in relation to the enemy's bloc and rear. As you might guess, in this case there are no longer three, but five scenarios. We will not consider here overly optimistic pictures of possible developments. The red option can be considered as a single one for both sides, and I will explain why. It should be noted that the red scenario in its radical version will entail significant losses on both sides, so it can only be called optimistic, even if it is considered in relation to the enemy bloc and rear, with great reservations. Or it cannot be called optimistic at all. The radical sub-variant, if it were applicable to our side, assumes military and civilian losses in total comparable to the losses for all the past years of the War, multiplied by two point five tenths. The enemy will suffer one point six tenths of its losses for all the years of the war. These are data from complex modeling and the figures are rather arbitrary, but the ratio of two and a half to one point six tenths is more reliable than an estimate of losses for a single side. I am sure that you have not overlooked the fact that this is a relative quantitative characteristic, and one point six of their losses against our two point five rather speaks of a higher vulnerability of their rear, which has already suffered its own superior losses over the past years. As a result of such an escalation surge, the damage and losses on both sides will be of a parity nature and in absolute terms will be close to each other in magnitude.
- After this, everyone should stand up and say "Hail Victory," Zadnikov thought mockingly, - We will lose no more than the enemy.
Nedmolton continued:
- The red scenario assumes two outcomes. The radical sub-option is that the Doomsday Situation will be replaced by the implementation of the "doomsday plan" - the network of corresponding fortifications is already capable of meeting the needs of such an outcome. A softer, let's say, moderate sub-option, implies the same Bolshevik plan that I mentioned as one of the outcomes of the green scenario. The radical sub-option can be deduced to exactly the same outcome, which is why they are combined into a single red scenario.
The diagram with a row of three rectangles at the top and four at the bottom appeared on the screen again. - it was removed during the listing and graphic illustrations of all the points of the red option - there was no space.
- Summing up my speech, I will say that we have three input scenarios - blue, green and red, which in total have four outcomes - maintaining the current organizational structure of the states and nations of the bloc, which I did not dwell on, Vanguard, Bolshevization, "doomsday plan". Our task is to work out a scenario for the Bolshevization of the nations of our Bloc.
Here the hall would have been in time to buzz, but the people were obviously experienced and reserved. Like Zadnikov, they, one would think, have heard even worse crap.
- I will make a reservation, communist or Bolshevik ideas radically contradict my personal convictions and moral principles.
- Well done, I'm the same, - Zadnikov thought lazily. - Like everyone else.
- However, if we are talking about cold calculations, - Nedmolton continued, - then the Bolshevization of the Bloc nations will have to cover all nations without exception, otherwise a confrontation is inevitable, which will begin in the first years of this very partial Bolshevization. I want to start by pointing out the general features of the consequences of such Bolshevization on the one hand and direct military defeat on the other.
- Direct military defeat is the inevitable collapse of our entire civilization. I mean Western civilization. Of course, our peoples will continue to exist, but their fate will be unenviable. At best, they will plunge into the darkness of lawlessness and tyranny for centuries. There is an eloquent example in history - this is the same Russia. Back then, it was not yet called Russia. More accurately, it could be described as a collection of proto-states and city-states, albeit disunited, but united by a single ethnic foundation. Around the thirteenth century, the Slavic cities and proto-states were occupied and devastated by the Mongol conquerors.
- But that was their complete military defeat, - flashed through Zadnikov's mind. How can you mix this up? Direct military is capitulation and the corresponding paper with a seal. Full military is tanks with hieroglyphs in Paris and Washington. Or ours in Hangjiang. Or for you, those horses and people just got mixed up into one indistinct something, where full military is indistinguishable from direct. Okay, these are trifles. Let's move on. - It should be noted, - Nedmolton continued, - that for most Asian nations the Mongolian nomads, I emphasize nomads, were strangers, but it was still an Asian world just as alien to ours. The result of the successful invasion of the Mongolian nomads was a three-century occupation and a complete reformatting of the once quite European protonations to a hybrid Asian-European appearance. The consequences of the reformatting manifested themselves for centuries. Perhaps right up until the last century. Even in the culture of the Second Soviet Union, one could discern individual figures who boasted, according to their assertions, of the Asian affiliation of the Russian people. If in the last century this was idle pseudo-intellectual chatter, then in previous centuries Russia, above all its intellectual thought, was literally torn between the West and the East. There was a reason for that. Here you have the lack of rights of the lower classes, and technological backwardness, when successfully executed copying was already considered a success, and the double life of the establishment, which preferred to consider itself as part of the West in complete isolation from its own national state. At the same time, the dark lower classes of the people were considered by the establishment, and by their own, which is doubly surprising, their own view, as a resource, a productive force and nothing more.
- I came to Greenland for the GBA headquarters game and as a bonus got a lesson in Russian history, - Zadnikov chuckled to himself.
- But Russia had the West, - the speaker led in some other direction. - Even if these were complicated relationships. Yes, it is unlikely that a typical citizen of the nineteenth, twentieth, or even last century unambiguously saw the West as a friendly force for themselves. Nevertheless, Russia had the West. After the collapse of the Second Union, a lot of work was done. Now, despite the demarche, Russia is part of our civilization. Any ordinary person, regardless of ethnicity, at least the overwhelming majority of ordinary people in Russia, will undoubtedly recognize themselves as representatives of the Community of Western Nations. - Nedmolton switched to an almost solemn tone. - And now let us return to considering the prospect of direct military defeat. The community of our nations will plunge into darkness, but this time we will not have our own West, which Russia had. Capitulation will inevitably entail a non-military occupation by Asia. They have already demonstrated their capabilities in this area in the last century, albeit rather cautiously. In the post-capitulation future, the drivers for a civilizational renaissance, the drivers that Russia had in the Middle Ages, in the nineteenth century, during the European bourgeois revolutions, in the Soviet periods, in recent decades - we will not have this. The Asian Bloc leaves no doubt about its destructive and anti-humanistic potential. Dictatorship, Asian collectivism, leaving far behind the anti-individualism that even the most radical Bolsheviks preached, open racism and chauvinism on the part of the victors - this is what awaits our nations in the event of direct military defeat.
- What awaits us if the Bolshevization scenario is realized? - Nedmolton finally moved on to a rather intriguing topic in the context of the meeting. - History shows that the administrative-political system that existed in the early years and decades of Soviet history, to put it bluntly, that same Bolshevism, really successfully solved a number of problems vitally related to the question of the survival of that nation, that state. The rejected market mechanisms could not ensure such an intensive growth of the productive capacity of the high-tech sector as command management, when the decisive factor in the implementation of a particular project was technological rationality and not profit-making. The issue was not even in some vulnerabilities of market mechanisms, but in the state of a broken country, whose population could be brought to some acceptable pre-war appearance exclusively by barracks methods. - At the present moment, everything connected with the events of two hundred years ago can hardly be called relevant, - Zadnikov immediately objected mentally, - or are we going to consider a scenario where the War will finally bring us all to the brink?
Nedmolton's further speech was not a little amusing. It was not amusing in the sense of primitive entertainment, but as some kind of sophisticated mental exercise, which ultimately outlined a scenario where a popular uprising like the one two hundred years ago, in its evolution, which without embarrassment could be called not an evolution but a perversion, so, this uprising over a long period of time led to a result identical to the result of another scenario, when capital, business, grew larger, bypassed antitrust legislation, changed generations of its physical owners, generated shadow global management structures, privatized states and governments... In general, everything came to something like AEX and GBA and everything else that made up the modern picture of the world. True, they, the real constellations, had to make a couple more steps that were questionable from the point of view of rationality and expediency, and then the two paths that once diverged from each other in opposite directions - the surviving, surviving socialism and supercapitalism would have converged again. They would have converged in a caricature dystopia. Caricature not so much in its anti-human morals, but in the irrationality of this scenario with much more promising and rational plans, at least of the same Global Vanguard. That is why the flaw in the picture of Bolshevism of the twenty-second century outlined by the speaker was that the scenario underlying it was not competitive against the background of those described earlier. Nedmolton also compared the centralized Bolshevik methods of organizing production processes in a ruined country with injections of a potent stimulant, which, as recovery progressed, turned from a life-sustaining drug into an addictive and degrading drug. Here Zadnikov agreed. However, when it came to the possibility of a scenario in which workers, modern workers, would fight with weapons in hand to escape from the jurisdiction of national governments and enter the direct jurisdiction of constellations, Zadnikov had a number of questions, again concerning the expediency. Everything worked fine as it was - under the conditions of the War, economic growth had been going on for several years already, and there had been obvious technological progress.